Paul Kelly doesn't share your certainty, DeepSea Racing Prawn.
Carbon package built on a gamble | The Australian
The policy, above all, reflects two fundamental beliefs. First, that the science is right. For Labor and the Greens this is a no-brainer. They are contemptuous of doubts about the science… Labor’s policy is alarmist. Carbon pricing is essential because global temperatures “could rise” up to 6.4C by 2100… The only conclusion from this policy is that global warming has now become one of Labor’s deepest beliefs.
The second belief embedded in this policy is that the rest of the world is taking assertive action against global warming.
This theme underpins the entire policy and Treasury modelling. You may have thought Copenhagen was a setback for global action but this policy assumes the precise opposite. Australia is now taxing carbon on the basis that Copenhagen was a success. This follows pledges made at Copenhagen and affirmed later at Cancun…
Labor’s policy merrily asserts that “governments around the world” are acting on such commitments and, as a result, Australia’s price is its “fair share” in global terms.
These claims are heroic. They may be right. Yet such Cancun pledges are voluntary and non-binding… The truth is that real progress in each nation will be determined by domestic politics… The extent to which these ambitious pledges are realised remains highly uncertain and Labor’s assumption may be optimistic folly.