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Old 12th Jul 2011, 20:53
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Grimweasel
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: uk
Posts: 611
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My only word of caution is the fact that due to QE 1/2 and possibly 3 , the excess froth of the credit bubble has not been worked-off yet. If anything we (as a Globe) are in a worse fiscal state than the market lows of 2008 due to the false economic rally and Central Banks' money printing. More debt has been created by governments trying to prop up a failing global economy because Keynes said 'G' spending would have solved the Great Depression. Classic Keynesian stuff but never tested in anger on this level before; and with Muni Bonds about to pop in the US and the US debt ceiling being capped by Congress (currently $14 Trillion and Obama wants to increase it!!!??) along with the Euro zone in deep trouble and rampant inflation in China - things could be about to get ugly once again.

So, possibly the devil and job you know better - I would hate for people to think the grass is always greener when in fact the grass is about to die again - all IMHO of course; but the charts are giving off all the signs that realisation of the credit woes could be about to strike - no doubt Ben Bernanke will run up the printing presses again and just add to the woes by prolonging the agony stoking up another false rally in a dying market?!

Think of the markets as a Heroin addict on a come down and Ben has just administered another shot of 'brown' - Euphoria! - but only short lived as the eventual come down will get worse and worse the longer the drug (cheap credit) is administered. The markets need to get through the cold turkey phase and start rebuilding balance sheets and creating jobs. The latest Non Farm Payroll figure last Fri for the US were a shocker; only 18K jobs created - that does't even keep pace with population growth so in effect its a negative figure!!

What should have happened in 08 was for the markets to be allowed to fall and the crap companies fail. We would probably now be in a better position and coming out of a recession. Instead we have made the eventual come down even worse. The only 'hope' is that all G20 Nations meet and decide to start at Year Zero and wipe the slate clean; somewhat unlikely of course!

So airlines may be recruiting now - but I can see them laying people off again as we dive into yearly cycle lows this autumn and winter -IMHO, DYOR of course!! ;-)
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