Good to see the banter is still going strong, but we better get round to some facts
:
In short - yes, it's a manning shortfall. The size of the formation is not relevant. Lon Mil consoles are normally restricted to working 3 (yes 3!) tracks. May not sound like a big number, but 3 tracks can often generate enough workload to mean that accepting further traffic can jeopardise safety. OTOH, 3 mundane tracks may allow extra capacity and authorisation to take more traffic may be given on an individual basis. The work required for different types of traffic varies immensely. Large formations are one speaking unit and one track, so I re-iterate, not relevant.
Turning to the manpower, the shortfall is in support controllers, not ATCOs. Each console must be manned by one of each. The disparity between establishment (don't have the exact figure, but about 58) and those available for rostering - 34 (taking this week as a typical example) can be explained thus:
Under training for first validation: 5
On det (Former Yugoslavia/Afghanistan/Middle East/South Atlantic): 6
On JATCC course & still on strength: 6
Guarding RAF Uxbridge: 1
Resettlement/Terminal leave: 1
Establishment shortfall: about 5
Total: 24 unavailable for rostering, without considering leave/sickness/etc.
True, a dispensation to use ATCOs as Support Controllers is held. They are not trained to do the job, it is not an ideal solution but it can often mean the ability to open an extra 2 or 3 consoles.
So, all that traffic and a limited number of lots available. Service is provided on a priority basis, with about 8 categories. Aircraft in emergency is top, traffic general handling in the middle air (such as Mil exercise traffic) is bottom.
So there it is, on with the banter...if you have a console open with the capacity to ringing me up enquiring whether my 6152 sqk 2 miles off the runway at Coningsby is the pair of F3s that you are going to work when they start fighting over the North Sea, why the hell can't you take them through TAFKABO (the airway formerly known as blue one) yourself & free up a slot to reduce our refusal stats by one?
Rgds,
Hippy.