holic,
Where did you get your figure of 10% ROC? From what I can gather, the cost of capital is closer to 7%. That would mean QF Int would need to make $350m.
7% is a cost of debt, not a cost of capital. The textbook calculation of cost of capital includes a number of variables including cost of debt, risk free rate, equity risk premium and beta. It is not difficult to find an explanation via Google. To simplify though, cost of capital is the weighted average of cost of equity and cost of debt. Given how volatile airlines are their cost of equity is high, I'll say 14% but plenty would argue it should be higher. Qantas is financed roughly 50% debt / 50% equity so average for cost of debt at 7% and cost of equity at 14% is 10.5%.
So QF Int has lost $200m. But if you add FF ($326m), the A380 being grounded (at least $100m) and natural disasters (about $50m) you are getting close to making the required ROC. This doesn't include freight fines, deals with the Vietnamese government, adverse media reports on safety, aircraft writedowns etc etc. Without these QF Intl would be making its cost of capital.
Neither of us know what is in the $200m figure and not much point in speculating but regarding FF, Borghetti seems to think he can create a successful FF program without having any significant international network which suggests they should be considered independent. The figure for FF that you quote also includes a one off benefit from change in accounting policy.