Alaska737 isn't far wrong but, imho, many F/O's will remain bound to the RHS for a slightly different reason. Consider the following assumptions:
- That the initial order for 54 aircraft is fulfilled.
- One aircraft delivery per month.
- No additional aircraft orders are in the pipeline.
- Ratio of 7 Capts and 7 F/O's per aircraft (around-the-clock flying ups the requirement for crew) .
- Continue to recruit Direct Entry Captains.
- None of the Captain's leave the company.
- Previous high levels of experience requirement for F/O recruits is not changed.
- F/O upgrade requirements are not changed.
- If an upgrade slot is available, that all the F/O's will upgrade, and will do so based upon their seniority number.
- That the ratio of F/O upgrades is 3 - 4 per each new aircraft delivered (with that being balanced by recruitment of 4 - 3 DEC's).
- Do not get Emirate' cadet pilots in place of F/O's.
With this present scenario, by the time the 54th aircraft is delivered there should be:
- 378 Captains, made up of 227 DEC's and 151 upgrade F/O's.
- 529 F/O's will have been hired in total (of which 151 will have upgraded to Captain) still leaving 378 F/O's occupying the RHS (which matches the number of Captains).
The projected date for 151st F/O being recruited will be when 22nd aircraft is delivered (
in 3 months from now) !
And what if flydubai immediately stopped all DEC recruitment and instead relied entirely on upgrading F/O's to fill the LHS?
Using this alternative scenario, by the time the 54th aircraft is delivered there should be:
- 378 Captains, made up of 115 DEC's and 263 upgrade F/O's.
- 641 F/O's will have been hired in total (of which 263 will have upgraded to Captain) still leaving 378 F/O's occupying the RHS (which matches the number of Captains).
The projected date for 263rd F/O having been recruited will be achieved when 27th aircraft is delivered (
approximately 8 months from now).
So depending upon which scenario you go for, and if nothing changes with the underlying assumptions:
- If DEC recruitment continues: F/O's hoping to upgrade prior to the delivery of the 54th aircraft need to join within the next 3 months.
- If DEC recruitment ceases: F/O's hoping to upgrade prior to the delivery of the 54th aircraft need to join within the next 8 months. (though there is presently little or no sign of DEC recruitment being suspended)
The bottom line is that there
will come a point, sooner or later, when the present rate of F/O command upgrades will cease.
After that point, the only hope for any of the 378 F/O's stuck in the RHS to upgrade will be if either more aircraft are ordered, or if there's a departure by some of the 378 Captains, or if an awful lot of F/O's - ahead of them in the seniority list - fail their upgrade ?!
You've just got to 'do the math', and do remember that most of the F/O's recruited thus far are already high-hour / high-experience, so there is no reason why most of them should not achieve an upgrade in advance of folk who join after the aircraft delivery vs. upgrade watershed!