Deviation - too little too late
BOAC
Quote:
Originally Posted by OC
BOAC - Apologies for the slow reply. Details of other aircraft deviating round the weather front can be found in already released BEA reports and in various posts in the threads on this subject. I am sure that if you look you will come across them.
- is it perhaps that you have missed the 12 deg deviation of AF447 in the report? As far as I know there is no evidence that they 'flew into a CB'.
There is nothing but evidence they flew into a CB.
But I want to add what we know and what we don't about this.
First the mission of the BEA, or any modern country’s investigative body’s is to assess the facts, try to make a determination of Probable Cause, and make recommendations for corrective action. Or lessons to prevent it from happening again.
It sometimes is implied that they “will leave no stone un-turned to arrive at a resolution.”
That is incorrect and is used when there are reasons for the outcome to be delayed.
In the Air Force where I served as an accident investigator for fighter squadrons, the mission was slightly different. And we had many more accidents to deal with. The AF did not have the luxury of waiting for the up to two year time lag waiting for results, as national security was at stake. Thus their mission was a Safety Investigation. All of the parties were immune from prosecution, legal suits did not apply, and the object was urgency, so that we could get back in the air again. Their goal is to make a determination of Probable Cause also and make recommendations to avoid or prevent.
The definition of probable cause is simply, more likely than not. Or technically 50.1% versus 49.9. A very low level of certitude, but considering all of the many unknowns very practical.
Here we know some things for sure, many many more we know literally nothing about.
1) We know: thunder storms along the track. No one knows how severe.
2) We know there are severe up and down drafts in them.
3) We know all 3 pitot tubes iced up. No one knows precisely why.
4) We know critical airpeed indicators went out.
5) Auto-pilots failed.
6) Auto-throttles failed.
7) Uncommanded 7000 fpm climb. Despite the plane being at it’s maximum cruising altitude. Evidence of 60-70 kt updrafts according to meteorological analysis.
8) Airspeed falling to below 60 kts.
9) Flight controls ineffective below 120 kts.
10) I know, you cannot control an airplane with trim alone.
11) No one knows for sure what a plane will do in a deep stall.
12) No one knows for sure whether a plane can recover from a deep stall especially with limited flight controls.
Questions I have:
Why was the flight dispatched into a known line of thunderstorms?
Why is there so little concern about the effects of flight into thunderstorms?
Despite all of the warnings on the subject?
To me there is no mystery.