Glojo
As mere mortals, we are not privy to the private conversations between world leaders & who knows what has been said, inferred & assured in private?
But surely if the Obama & the State Dept. hadn't discretely told the UK & Argentina the same message i.e. "We, The US', support peoples right to self determination through the democratic process..." which is commensurate with their line in just about every other recent territorial & political dispute, we would have seen the signs.
Whether it was on the front page of the daily editions of Clarin in downtown BA, or a token, discrete bolstering of CBFFI's in-theatre assets & capabilities, the signs would be there for all to see. But what do we see? Griselda of The Terrahawks making nothing than attacks on the UK's colonial demise & CMTCD doing nothing about it.
And if the self determination debate makes it as far as the UN, with the Kirschner regime making overtures about forcing out imperialistic, colonial forces, then surely they'd know that opens the way for indigenous peoples such as the Atacaman, Fuegian, Patagonan et al to demand their right to self determination under the same motion. Mass demos down Florida Street & in the Parque Colon, I think.
But I bet the Strategy Planners on both sides have noticed one fact that's as obvious as a dog's lipstick. If it looks as though the Argies are assembling a force in Puerto Belgrano or anywhere else & the decision was taken to quit Afghan' & move troops the Falklands very promptly, & you draw a great circle track between the two places, the aforementioned small lump of lava is only a couple of hundred miles off track. In fact, looking at Google Earth, the track takes it right over most of the African countries we've just pledged all that lovely aid to.
For the time being, the Argies will continue to test, probe, sabre rattle, pontificate & cry foul knowing full well we are stretched to the limit. But they also know we went to war once already over this collection of rocks & sheep farmers. And we will do it again. After all if our brave, selfless, underpaid, under equipped, under valued, men & women HAD to fight anywhere on this planet where would the electorate demand they do it? In the poppy fields of Helmand or for safety, security & rights of democratic native English speaking subjects, sharing the same thoughts, ideology, values & Head of State?
Personally, I'd tempt the Argies into trying to make a grab for the Islands with another Astute or two down there tailing any invasion force. The minute they cross the EZ, I'd give the order to sink the transports & Carrier & pound the hell out of them all the way back home. I would only call off the hounds when the Argies agreed to accept the right of the Islanders to determine their own future & that it is NEVER questioned again.
Discuss.