I must admit, I'm a tad confused, Its pretty black and white to me.
AIP ENR 1.1 57.1.3
When an aerodrome forecast is not available or provisional, the PIC must make provision for a suitable alternate that has a firm forecast.
Its irrelevant if you have the ability to do an instrument approach or not. Its irrelevant if you think you can somehow ascertain the conditions for 1 airport off an area forecast or not.
Furthermore its not permissible to use RNAV alone to remove an alternate requirement when considering instrument approach options. See ENR 1.1 58.3 That said I stand to be corrected on that one as its been a while since ive read the regs re RNAV.
If you don't have an aerodrome forecast, you require an alternate. Show me where it states otherwise.
