The company has around 65 pilots in the holding pool for BA and other airlines. Many now realise that it's a dead end to stay with TUI so there are a lot of FO's scanning the horizon. Commands are going to be dead mens shoe's only and none before 2013 when a heavy retirement tranch occurs. That will need to be balanced with the projected fleet size decreasing year by year.
Many are also worried about the long term future of the company that is facing a buy back from Germany and a declining customer base. Draw your own conclusions. Some hope the Germans will pump money in and expand. Others realise it's unlikely.
I would say recruitment is inevitable but don't expect the same terms and conditions enjoyed by those already here. Summer contracts, lower pay scales and money purchase pensions are just the start of what you can expect. The long haul program is in decline and you won't see the 787 for many years as a new joiner.
As for why BALPA are allowing all this to happen. What do you expect them to do? The top third of the seniority list are happy so sod everyone else. The union is run by those who shout loudest for those that pay most! Sadly the union in TUI is now just an expensive irrelevance.
Yes. Joining TUI would be a step up from Ryanair, but not as big a step as you might expect.