TIMA9X, I have been following the Japanese situation pretty closely since the Tsunami. I don't want to turn it into a 787 thread, but there are a couple of points.
- Japanese electricity system. The country is electrically split into two halves, the south operates on 60Hz, the north on 50Hz. There are only 4 interconnect stations between the two. Overall, the Japanese are facing a power loss >15%, however, this could be as high as 30%. However, industry could be forced to reduce usage by much more than these numbers to allow domestic air conditioners to make summer bearable. However, this will not be split evenly between the north and the south, with the north suffering much greater power shortages.
- The major damage to electrical infrastructure is in the north. This is not just the generators, but the distribution system as well.
- The majority of the B787 composite components appear to be manufactured in the north, and I assume that composites takes large amounts of energy to produce, not sure of its source. I also assume the jigs & ovens cannot be readily relocated.
- Fukishima is going from bad to worse. There is now official confirmation that 3 cores have melted and are sitting under the plant as corium. This occurred only 5 hours after the Tsunami (TEPCO's own number was 15 hours). They have known this all along. They are going to continue to dribble out more bad news to keep it off the front page.
So, in short, if I were to have a bet, on the balance of probabilities, the production rate for the 787 is going to be dramatically affected, on the information we have at hand. I reserve the right to change this if the facts change. The 787 will be certified, some will be delivered to various operators, however the delivery rate will be a huge problem for the Jetstar strategy. The execs must be sh!tting themselves (if they have actually worked this out). The tide is going out, and we are about to find out who is swimming naked!