For those thinking this summer is going to be such a train wreck you are sadly mistaken.
We're already nearly halfway through June and I still need to see the first report on a cancelled flight solely due to a crew shortage. All BRK 'service providers' received a memo declaring there will be no A/L allocated during the summer months.
Granted they are plugging holes everywhere with BRK pilots. Several of my colleagues are doing one or two days out of base then coming back to their base for the rest of their duty week.
After August things will slow down again. By the next summer however the flow of new aircraft will have seized. Ryanair is not buying any new aircraft for the foreseeable future. This has the following implications:
1. The shortage of captains will disappear. The only reason why we have been short over the years is because of expansion. NOT because people are leaving. I'm not saying people aren't leaving. But not in droves like 'rumour' has it.
2. With expansion ending there will come an end to the 3000 hours to command mantra all F/O's have come to take as a given. With normal attrition and pensioning/leave of older CP's I would imagine between 4 and 6 years before command as opposed to the 3 years it is now.
3. There is never a shortage of pilots on the market. Ryanair will not have any trouble attraction DEFO's or DEC's to fill the few gaps they might have after expansion stops.
So what do you do as a pilot in this situation? You look at the places in the world where they are still expanding. For 90% of us this means selling our soul for a few drops of water in the desert (almost literally).