Is Mount Pleasant closed or is Timmy stuck in Ascension?
I just ask because I tried plotting the ash cloud position given by Buenos Aires VAAC last night, based on the text advisories they're putting out here:
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
The +18 forecast last night had a continuous cloud from SFC to FL400 and from the volcano due east to a longitude far to the east of South Georgia but well north of FI.
The actual report from mid-afternoon today (BST) on the other hand only mentions SFC to FL180 and covers a (relatively) tiny area of Patagonia.
Here are the two messages for comparison (anyone know why there's such a big difference? Is it possible to drastically redefine the cloud limits and still maintain safe flight?):
DTG: 20110606/2130Z
VAAC: BUENOS AIRES
VOLCANO: CORDON CAULLE 1507-15
PSN: S4052 W07220
AREA: CHILE-C
SUMMIT ELEV: 1798M
ADVISORY NR: 2011/011
INFO SOURCE: GOES 12 - GFS MODEL -
ERUPTION DETAILS: CONTINUOUS EMISSION
OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 06/2100Z
OBS ASH CLOUD: VOLCANIC ASH PLUMES 65 NM WID LINE BTN S4052 W07220 -
S3800 W07000 - S3700 W06900 - S3500 W06900 - S3300 W06800 - S3400
W06500 - S3700 W06300 - S4000 W06000 - S4200 W05500
FCST ASH CLD +06HR: 070300Z SFC/FL400 65 NM WID LINE BTN S4052 W07220
- S3800 W06600 - S3300 W06600 - S2800 W06600 - S3300 W06400 - S3500
W06000 - S4000 W05000 - S4800 W02800
FCST ASH CLD +12HR: 070900Z SFC/FL400 65 NM WID LINE BTN S4052 W07220
S3800 W06300 - S3300 W06300 - S2500 W06000 - S3300 W06000 - S3700
W05700 - S4100 W04000 - S5000 W02000
FCST ASH CLD +18HR: 071500Z SFC/FL400 65 NM WID LINE BTN S4052 W07220
S4500 W06800 - S4000 W06200 - S3500 W06300 - S3000 W06400 - S2300
W06000 - S2400 W05600 - S2500 W05800 - S3000 W05900 - S3500 W05500 -
S3800 W05000 - S4000 W04300 -S4200 W03200
REMARKS: LARGE AREA OF ASH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD E. A PLUME IS
VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IR AND VIS CHANNEL. AREA OF REMANENT VA
ASH FROM PREVIOUS EMISION AT S3900 W07000 - S3900 W06600 - S4000
W06400 - S4200 W06500 - S4300 W06800 - S3900 W07000
NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20110607/0330Z
____________________________________________________________ ______________________________
DTG: 20110607/1330Z
VAAC: BUENOS AIRES
VOLCANO: CORDON CAULLE 1507-15
PSN: S4052 W07220
AREA: CHILE-C
SUMMIT ELEV: 1798M
ADVISORY NR: 2011/014
INFO SOURCE: GOES 12 - GFS MODEL
ERUPTION DETAILS: CONTINUOUS EMISSION
OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 07/1230Z
OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL180 VA CLD 35 NM WIDE LINE BTN S4052 W06630 -
S4127 W07053 - S4200 W06956 - S4318 W06907 - S4432 W06905
FCST ASH CLD +06HR: 071930Z SFC/FL180 S4052 W07220 - S4130 W0550 -
S4200 W06140 - S4400 W06130 - S4230 W06640 - S4052 W07220
FCST ASH CLD +12HR: 080130Z SFC/FL180 S4052 W07220 - S4100 W06700 -
S4130 W063500 - S4230 W05800 - S4600 W05800 - S4310 W06454 - S4133
W06930 - S4052 W07220
FCST ASH CLD +18HR: 080730Z SFC/FL180 S4052 W07220 - S4000 W06700 -
S4000 W06300 - S4300 W05400 - S4500 W05800 - S4200 W06400 - S4052 W07
220
REMARKS: VA PLUME IS VISIBLE IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AREA OF REMANENT VA ASH FROM PREVIOUS