HN39, your plots make sense to me with regards to AoA. If, as has been shown, the plane hit with approximately equal forward and down velocities the AoA for a dead level plane (0 degrees pitch) would be 45 degrees. So I'd think the AoA would have gone up over 50 if the plane hit with a pitch of 16 degrees up even with a head wind.
Your data makes good sense for "what". That still leaves why, which apparently has BEA puzzled, too.