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Old 31st May 2011, 21:28
  #1198 (permalink)  
JJFFC
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: PARIS
Age: 62
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What should a PF bet on : instruments or human thinking ?

Hi Meccano

JJFC
If you KNOW an instrument is faulty - are you seriously suggesting we follow it? I hope I'm misunderstanding you here, because any pilot is potentially 100% more reliable than a faulty instrument!
And unfortunately it's not always clear cut. Contradictory indications often occur.
Which instrument to believe then??
My point is statistics:
  • An instrument is 99.99% reliable at min
  • A pilot is 97% reliable at max (this is why a plane has automatic protections)
The PF on the AF447 sees:
  • vertical speed : -10000
  • speed : no data
  • pitch : > 15°
What should he bet on :
  • no speed, therefore he doesn't believe his instruments : 0.01% x 93%
  • he stalls : 99.99% x 93%
Sincerely yours.
JJFFC is offline