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Old 30th May 2011, 18:32
  #1067 (permalink)  
ST27
 
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There is some confusion among posters here, and in the press, about the flight path. The pitch attitude is reported to be around 15-16 degrees nose up, and the angle of attack to be 35-40 degrees. This translates to a flight path angle of -20 to -25 degrees. If the vertical speed is around 10,000 fpm (~100 knots), then the slant speed has to be the vertical speed divided by the sine of the descent angle, or somewhere around 250 knots. This is the true airspeed. The airplane was not fluttering down vertically like a leaf, and its forward speed was not 60 knots or 107 knots or whatever.
There is ample opportunity for confusion, since at different points in the report ground speed, AIS, and the erroneous speeds on the displays are mentioned. To understand what they are saying you have to keep the context of each separate in your mind.

As far as the forward speed, it was 107 knots when last recorded, according to the report. I assume that's GPS derived, so it should be accurate. However, that was ground speed, not the speed through the air. For your 250 knot estimate of airspeed to the true, that would imply a headwind speed of around 120 knots, which is unlikely. It was a thunderstorm, not a category 4 hurricane.

The report also mentions that the AOA in the final moments of the flight was always in excess of 35 degrees. It did not say how high it reached, nor what it was at the end of the recording. Thus, your assumption of only 40 degrees is probably an underestimate.

To put a perspective on it, if the wind was calm, then the actual flight path would be about 45 degrees down, AOA of about 61 degrees, with an actual speed through the air of about 151 knots.
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