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Old 22nd May 2011, 20:45
  #45 (permalink)  
Sunfish
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: moon
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M.I.C. is satire. Unionist is a troll and the verdict is open on QAN Shareholder.

I once did safety reporting and statistical analysis of aircraft failures for a living.

I ran the RB211 engine failure numbers by year supplied by ALEA Fed Sec some months ago using exactly the same procedure as when I reported this sort of stuff to CASA's ancestor.

My conclusion was that we were only one more failure away from proving the hypothesis at the 95% confidence level that there was something wrong with QF's RB211's - to put it another way, being 95% sure that something had changed about the way the engine was either being maintained or operated.

Since then we have had Two more - and unless I am very wrong, something has changed and the change is in the wrong direction.

Since the ATSB are not fools, I would therefore expect that they have reached the same conclusion and will be having a private chat with QF, if they haven't already.


P.S. Statistically a four engined aircraft will have twice the probability of engine failure as a Twin, and Four times the probability of a single, all other things being equal.

I think I also understand that QF's route to Europe avoids the Tibetan plateau and similar high terrain just in case of a double failure.
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