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Old 19th May 2011, 08:21
  #1806 (permalink)  
john_tullamarine
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Some observations ..

A number of posts consider an hypothetical need for an aircraft to be able to handle whatever circumstances might be thrown at it during the course of a flight.

Unfortunately, that is not the way the system works .. any aircraft can be broken or lost if the circumstances are too extreme for the combination of aircraft and crew.

The generally excellent aviation safety record bears testimony to the soundness of the present airworthiness system.

(a) a design has to demonstrate compliance with the Design Standards before it is awarded its Type Certification.

(b) the Design Standards are based on probabilistic considerations - ie extreme events outside the required envelope may well result in the loss of an aircraft .. but such is extremely unlikely to occur.

(c) there appears to be some concern that FBW itself is a problem if the autopilot runs out of capability in an extreme event - one needs to keep in mind that the same is likely to occur with a conventional aircraft .. in the latter case it is usually the human pilot which fails to cope with the circumstances.

(d) after a significant event, such as this one, the Certification Authorities will consider whether the original aircraft certification was adequate. In some cases in the past, existing Type Certifications have been revisited and the design modified to address some in-service problem which is deemed to be a deficiency with respect to the Design Standards.

(e) after a significant event and, indeed, with consideration of routine problems, the Design Standards themselves are revisited and modified to account for available technical knowledge, state of art technical capability, and so on. One only has to compare the FAR 25 of today with that of several decades ago to see this in action.

Now, whether this mishap is the result of aircraft deficiencies, crew deficiencies, operational deficiencies, Design Standards deficiencies and so forth .. will come out of the investigation. Aspects of design and procedures may well be varied to plug whatever holes are found to exist in the dyke .. time will tell.

Think how much more difficult was the analogous situation with the early Comet losses when the investigators initially were working with very little hard evidence to go on. At least, with this mishap, the recorders will provide a very detailed story to be read by the investigators.

However, extreme events will usually/always win over technical and piloting capability and ingenuity .. which is why we try to stay away from situations which might involve an extreme event.
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