Theories, media, our old friend ...
If we all look back over the postings on both AF447 discussions, fair to say the standard quality of informed input has been very high especially considering that the main wreckage was found only a short time ago.
Personal guess is that broadly the impact criteria has been quite accurately described, though truth may lay somewhere in the middle.
With the DFDR and DCVR recorder being time matched, and harmonic analysis applied, we are gonna be faced with the third thread, the last piece of cheese with the holes in it to let this happen when procedures, technology and culture were all designed to say it should not.
Per previous post, it is the design interface (and all aspects of it) with the human element that has consistently proved to be the weakest link, often at the most trivial level.
Everything that we have pondered, analised and written could be overturned in a single press release, let's not forget that.
Everyone remembers landmark accidents that we have as core material on our CRM refreshers .. this may turn out to be just another one.
Who knows, but despite the conspirisy theorists, I sense that training, technology and culture may well have been a red herring here.
Having had the privilage to spend some time with investigators over the years, I know them to be dedicated people, when they have agreed a likely senario as a team, we will know much more in a substantiated form.
So lets wait on this one, and let them do their job.
Do not forget that this design, AP in or out wants to maintain zero roll rate and 1g .. it can get out of sync per the transatlantic incident, make it extreme and it's gonna be a nightmare with protections lost .. add a human in the loop, perhaps more so, perhaps being there in the first place is the best demonstration.
Last edited by Teddy Robinson; 17th May 2011 at 21:59.