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Old 15th May 2011, 14:39
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RealQuax
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Germany
Age: 63
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2 weather-related aspects which I see might need further look into:

First of All, those excellent meteo-drawings by Tim Vasquez imply that the crew should have had (probably) a similar picture on their radar scope and probably failed to interpret correctly and thus did not avoid what should have been avoided. Even Tim Vasquez writes, that the depiction in the cockpit might have been completely different. If there was no water in liquid state present, the actual picture might have suggested that there was no danger in penetrating the weather ahead (green depiction, or even nothing).

On the other hand, the potential of ice crystals seem to have been underestimated in the past, as recent discussions reveal. There are some excellent presentations around which show the effects of ice crystals on engines or other airplane surfaces, see for example here. One might even suppose that engine thrust might have been lost or limited in addition to the failed probes, adding up to the dire situation of the crew.
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