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Old 12th May 2011, 20:42
  #1259 (permalink)  
mm43
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NNW of Antipodes
Age: 81
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Trajectory at impact

I have watched the waxing and waning of the various contributors on what still seems to be a contentious issue, i.e. "the in line of flight, with low bank, tail yawing to port and a high vertical velocity". I have also seen mention of Ethiopian 961 and can see little similarity with what happened there and the effective "slam dunk" that appears to have terminated AF447's flight.

The BEA reported the facts as they had deduced them from wreckage previously recovered, and in doing so gave ample examples (complete with photographs) of the damage and how it was caused. I don't believe that anything has changed in what they reported, as the bottom debris field is made up of many separate pieces of debris, each with differing mass, terminal velocities and hydrodynamic characteristics (including drag). Those items with high mass/volume made it (in my opinion) to the bottom effectively directly under the position from whence they separated from their normal place of attachment.

The detached FDR CSMU fits that category even better than the #1 and #2 engines, as its drag coefficient would be less.

My interpretation of previously published data leads me to believe the low bank angle was to port and the #1 engine "dug in" a fraction of a second before the #2 engine. The tail, yawing to port, will have "dug in" at the same time as the #1 engine. All other items found on the bottom have taken longer to get there, and some have (due to their shape) glided/spun/spiraled down.

In general, the overall effect of the subsurface current appears to have been from 075°T to 255°T and the objects with the least mass/volume have taken the longest to travel the nearly 4km to the bottom and are distributed further to the west.

The aircraft had a trajectory at the time of impact, and I am inclined to say that its horizontal component was North of East and the aircraft's heading at impact was close to East. However, as the Rate of Descent was high, this was no "skipping stone" accident and all horizontal momentum was arrested in just a few meters - say <10m.

The usual rider; - this is just speculation and the FDR could well tell a different story.
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