That ccq thing is a real anomaly, I wonder if AR let that slip out by accident or on purpose. Either way, I hope your analysis turns out as its doom and gloom everywhere else you look. I don't think one should underestimate the MENA effect. TC have invested much time and money in Egypt, and to a lesser extent in Tunisia, all for potentially non-existent All Inclusive customers. If they feel that MENA is a dead cat we are already contracted out on the short short-haul, what do you do with the fleet? Well, the obvious (but not necessarily correct) answer is to shrink the fleet back to 2005 size. Ie Winter covered, summer subbed.
So, there we have it, either sunshine, Canada and a future or 200 pilots out the door and a much smaller fleet. Your guess is as good as mine.
However, we might know more after today.