Gundog01; I find the situation you describe curious.
I usually involve in a bi-monthly fighter squadrons luncheon frequently attended by some of the senior RAAF echelon from CAF down. I recently asked a Group Captain from Canberra: 'How are we going these days for pilots?' and his response was: 'We are always short of pilots'.
There has always been an outflow to airlines and not so long back, the Air Force was 'importing' pilots from other nations - maybe this is ongoing to maintain an experienced core. Excess junior pilots will only result in lowering overall experience gained during flying tours, as you have already mentioned; but has the training system been slowed so the surplus of 2FTS graduates awaiting type conversions can be absorbed?
The flying instructor nucleus for the RAAF was significantly diminished by shutdown of 1BFTS and loss of the helicopter flying training component once embedded in No. 5 Squadron at Canberra, when battlefield support helos were transferred to Army Aviation - multiple QFI posts at 4 helicopter squadrons were thus also forfeited. Is flying instructor strength at unit level now a limiting factor for type conversions?