1. As there is now (unlike 1982) a garrison and a serious airfield on the Falks, isn't the first question whether or not the invaders can be headed off by reinforcement of the islands? When do you assume London finds out about the plot?
2. Given that the ******s land one dark'n'stormy without any warning, it becomes a question of recapturing the islands. At the moment, I'd say we are better able to do it than in 1982 (as long as the navy does not have to go to Iraq at the same time). Reasons - many more ships have Sea Wolf, CIWS, more FA2s are available and they are considerably more formidable than the FRS1s used in 1982; if any RAF Harriers were to be embarked for attack, they would be GR7s or 9s; Sea King AEWs now exist; given no other amphibious ops running, an LPH (Ocean) will be available in addition to the LPDs (and could be used to launch RAF Harriers instead of filling up the CVSs). Tomahawk-equipped submarines would be available should they be needed (for example as a threat to the mainland). Generally, more support helicopters could be sent.
3. But without the SHARs....the whole thing falls into the "capability gap"! After/If the new carriers and F-35s come into service, it would become possibile (and easier) again.