mm43 wrote :
The only thing we positively know at this time is at the nominal 0210z AOC report, the aircraft was west of the track. This probably occurred within 30 seconds of the report and not as a premeditated crew action.
1 - yes, AOC position at 02:10:34 (minus 5 seconds sending) was 3 NM west of track. AOC have higher priority than maintenance messages, their sending is likely to be close to real time.
2 - how do you know it was not through deliberate crew action ? For my part, I take it as another hint that they were awake and circumnavigating CBs, not as an upset that would have kicked them 3 miles offtrack.