there are at least two reliable, solid indications that the guys up front were active right in the middle of the ACARS message stream, that is between 0210 and 0214.
True. But if (and I say if) they were less than fully awake prior to upset, then they sure would have woke up with the upset. So you would expect some evidence of pilot activity post-upset - irrespective of what they were doing prior to upset.
So I agree with you. However to me this does not shed any light on what was happening immediately prior to upset.
It is hard to escape the conclusion that these guys were caught out somehow. Despite a significant weather system in their path. And despite (I presume) a degree of radio traffic that other aircraft were diverging from their track.
I don't have an ax to grind. I really don't. I am merely trying to keep an open mind and consider all the facts.