jcjeant, the analysis by the Russian Interstate Aviation Group and BEA concluded there was about a 55 percent probability that the impact would be within 6 NM from the "start of the emergency", and nearly 70 percent probability it would be within 8 NM. It seems the Metron analysis used the LNP as the "start of the emergency" for purposes of its calculations. But the LNP is rather late in the sequence,
Perhaps a reason the BEA is not releasing the exact coordinates is that it may be closer to the LNP then many of us assume, and if so, both Brazil and France would have overflown the impact point on both June 1 and June 3. (France clearly overflew it on June 1 (wherever it turns out to be) given the search graphic in the Metron analysis for June 1.)
If visual conditions for the search on June 1 were poor, one would think that search would be repeated when conditions were improved. That seems not to be the case.
I am certain that an impact quite close to the LNP would raise all manner of questions about the adequacy of the initial searches, and that would be a subject that the BEA and the French and Brazilian military would rather not be distracted by at this point. There was also a ship, the Douce France, that searched in the area of the LNP on June 1, but its track has not been publicly released.