bearfoil;
It was observed and stated somewhere shortly after the crash in 2009 that there wouldn't be sufficient dynamic pressure above FL200 or so, to cause the VS to fail as it did and that upset would be the only event which could produce sufficient forces which means loss of control could only precede any loss of the VS before impact.
Another way to examine it is, (and this too, has been said before, by myself and others in the thread), if the fin broke off due to upset, entry into a thunderstorm etc, then almost certainly loss of control at high altitude followed by a high-speed impact would have been the result and the available evidence does not lead us to such a conclusion. If the loss of the VS occurred lower, then such loss was not the precipitating event.
The wreckage in the photographs is "relatively" intact, even "pristine" when compared to that of Swissair 111 after an impact of 300kts. The recovered wreckage, mostly from the cabin, is similarly absent of any evidence of high-speed collision with water or other parts during the breakup sequence. Ejected overhead bin parts, the defibrilator (red box) and doctor's medical kit (yellow box), are all in pristine condition, relatively speaking, again, evidence against a high-speed impact.
In fact, the larger parts such as galleys, FA seats, washroom doors etc came from those areas which are major joins in the barrels of the fuselage - just behind the cockpit, just in front of and behind the wing box and just ahead of the tail section aft of the pressure dome.
We can't say any more about it other than that's where the larger pieces came from but it is reasonable to believe that this is how the wreckage will be distributed.
It's been mentioned many times...the track that AF447 took in comparison with others on the same two tracks, especially the number of diversions left and right of track taken by the aircraft behind AF447. I wonder if 123.45 was as busy that night as it usually is on the Pacific and Atlantic?...