mm43
With most respect, I tend to disagree re: your studious conclusion about the found spoiler, and by inference other composite panels. The spoiler was found on the surface beaten up badly, and fractured, but retaining its full size and shape. Given the scope of the destruction to metallic forgings and extrusions evident in the seabed photos, I have to say the spoiler without doubt was removed by air loads, extreme airloads. The actuator attach was badly fractured, but the damage was tight to its location, and gave way to a retention of integrity just inches into the panel's skin surrounding the fasteners. In my experience, FRP has a signature failure in high energy impacts that is unmistakable. It explodes. I believe that if the spoiler panel (#4??) had been on the wing at water impact, there would be virtually nothing left to find. This has also to do with my admittedly stubborn conviction that the Vertical Stabilizer and Rudder were not on the fuselage at impact. The Radome is even money, I think it is likely to have left the airframe prior as well, perhaps in overspeed, or due to hail damage.
I am thrilled at the location of the aircraft's site, and my optimism is high. I think that here on PPRuNe, this thread is as incisive and academically brilliant as any accident report I've seen. You and the others are absolutely brilliant in your knowledge, logic, and utmost respect for one another.
kudos, and back to read....