Hey, TT.
Like I mentioned before, many private industries in Canada are dependant on what happens in the U.S. Even more so now because of NAFTA. I don't think the commercial aviation industry is any different, actually. It's a bit healthier than what's going on down here, but it's still weak right now. Air Canada did post a profit last quarter, albeit a small one, but questions still remain.
I think the future of air travel up there is low fare, as you see with the start of Zip, Tango and Jazz and the success of West Jet. JetsGo seems to be off to a good start as well. However well Air Canada can adjust to this market change will determine how successul it will be in the near future. Their U.S. routes are doing really bad now and their International routes so-so.
Recovery by 2005? Depends on a lot of factors. What happens if there is a war with Iraq? That won't help the oil prices in the near term and it could further stall a recovery. Providing things don't escalate out of control, I don't see things improving too much in the U.S. or Canada for another two years. Out of all the places though, Alberta will probably have the strongest economy because of it's energy based economy. Alberta is currently seeing the highest growth in the commercial aviation sector. If Canada signs on to the Kyoto Treaty, that will change everything though. British Columbia has been in a recession for the past five years. Quebec will do only as well as politics allow it to and Ontario is heavily dependant on what goes on in the U.S.