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Old 16th Apr 2011, 03:58
  #3550 (permalink)  
Machinbird
 
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AUV-EE comment
I might point out that objects that tend to "kite" off the vertical during descent will also be likely to turn. Thus most objects will still end up near each other after either a straight or spiral descent.
Good comment! The MLG strut probably came down like a helicopter after the surface breakup due to the attached skin panel. Any angle of attack of that 'vane' would cause a rotation. Probably accounts for the relative angle of the panel and gear (appearance of being extended).

Are we agreed that the subsurface current dispersing the wreckage was in a East to West direction?

The dispersion of this wreckage reminds me of an accident where the fuel washed components of the fractured forward fuselage out of the crater and they were dispersed with port side components further from the crater than starboard side components but spread out along a narrow angle corresponding to the distance off axis in the aircraft. In that case, it was easy to find components by observing what was in the vicinity.

With AF447 components being sorted by starting position, and fall rate, it is a much more difficult problem to figure out where to find things. But if the recorders are as dense as others have indicated and if they have torn loose, at least they should be close to other items of similar density (as modified by their starting position).

I expect that the recovery team will go for the tail section first to attempt to locate the recorders there. If they are no longer there however, they had best be careful because once they disturb the 'indian signs' on the bottom, they will have to locate the recorders by means other than visual.

AF447 is a bit more broken up than I was hoping for. I expect one of the reasons that the pingers were not located is that they are buried and the bottom muck attenuated the signal.
I expect people at BEA and the recovery team are going over the wreckage pictures trying to develop an initial orientation for the aircraft so they can make some educated guesses where things can be found.
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