Hi Grizz. Good to see you again.
I agree that there the human factors are likely to have been very important. Possibly more important than the hardware.
At some stage, did both pilots drift off too sleep. We have all drifted off to sleep without meaning to. It shouldn't happen when flying a plane, but it has many times. Middle of the night, apparently routine flight, and disrupted circadian rhythm. All the ingredients are there.
If we get useful information from the CVR/FDR then all these questions will be answered. If we do not however, then we will be left with the following:
1. All the knowledge we had prior to discovery of the plane, which was inconclusive and fitted numerous theories
2. The location of the wreck. This is pretty close to the impact point. It would have sank fairly quickly and the subsurface currents are not that strong. The the wreckage is a very close approximation to the impact point.
3. The wreckage - which has already confirmed not a high speed impact with the water, which most people had accepted already.
So the only new piece of information to incorporate into existing theories will be the location.
Based on existing knowledge and an impact close to KNP, how does the following scenario sound?
1. Both pilots drifted off to sleep. Didn't avoid weather. And missed some radio calls (although there are other explanations for this, these explanations don't incorporate the failure to deviate around weather).
2. Pilots suddenly wake due to turbulence. Confusion about what has happened, concern about the present situation of the aircraft, and also concern about the implications for them. None of this makes for clear thinking in a hurry. Not difficult to imagine almost a panic situation.
3. Radar looks very threatening ahead.
4. Thinking "at least we came through what is behind us", and so a decision to perform major change in heading. 90 degrees or possibly even more.
5. Sudden upset, loss of control, and inability to recover.
This explains lack of preparation of cabin - CC seats not occupied, and lots of unrestrained pax.
A significant course deviation (reversal) may also explain the location close to LKP, and where all that energy (both kinetic and potential) went.
Again, we all hope the recorders will reveal all. If they can't be recovered (or if data can't be recovered from them), then we will be left with the best theory that fits all the knowns. And the location will be one of those knowns.