It's been over five months since I've posted on pprune. Been regularly reading some forums and threads of course; this one for professional interest, and JB for therapy.
I shan't comment on any technical aspects regarding the upset and loss of AF447, as there are others who continue to do a much better job of that than I could. What I will advance is the postulate that the action (or inaction) of the flight crew likely had a great deal to do with the initial upset (as opposed to the intial upset being a direct result of technical factors).
There are certainly indications that the crew were (for reasons yet unknown) not being proactive during the 30 minutes or so leading up to the departure from controlled flight (lack of position reporting or other communications from the flightdeck, for instance). Human behaviour research tells us that if such was the case, then a reasonable assumptive progression from that goes one of two ways: 1, The crew were too busy with other duties, or 2, they were also not being proactive in other areas also
for whatever reason(s).
There is no reason to suspect that the crew were overwhelmed with other activites in the half hour prior to the first ACARS, therefore postulate 2 is more likely. So, the suggestion that the crew did not take any action to address a deteriorating situation is worth discussion. Remember that the conditions that we are aware of on the flight deck (through ACARS) tell us there were significant events
but none significant enough to explain the loss of the aircraft).
There is strong (circumstantial) reason to believe the Captain was not on the flight deck. Additionally, as all flight crew members know, there are a variety of reasons why:
1 There may have been only one flight crew member up front for ten minutes or more
2 There may have been two crew members up front but only one actually "in the loop".
3 There is even the possibility (documented in past occurrences) that there was no functioning crew member up front (nodding off, severe turbulence causing injury, etc).
I am not suggesting a specific reason for the lack of action (as there is clearly no evidence yet to do so) but I am suggesting that to be overwhelmed, such that the aircraft is lost, points to being caught
way off guard. Which in turn points to an environment on the flight deck that was, shall we say "less than SOP".
Such a situation may also provide clues to why the passenger cabin seems to have been unprepared for whatever occurred.
Simply sharing thoughts...