Right now the only ones affected are the regionals. As i stated before the majority of the pilots at the major airlines are old and were back logged because of the retirement rules (60 increased to 65). Within a few years this problem will not only be a regional problem.
I know a good few captains that have been at a regional for 10-15 years. They get paid pretty well (100k+), get the schedules they want, and get a large amount of time off per year. Given that it would take them at least three years at a major to earn the same as they are getting and all the benefits they would lose as they would be on the bottom; i do not foresee people leaving in a hurry.
We will see how the pilot mills work out........loans are hard to get especially when you are not part of a university.