Originally Posted by sensor_validation
Of course many aircraft the same night did deviate, but given the likely weather pattern, to do so after 02:00 would surely have been too late?
0200 and 0210 are the only two positions transmitted during this time window, it doesn't tell much about the flight.
Who know, today, her route and what exactly F-GZCP radar pictured on her path?
Originally Posted by sensor_validation
I didn't realize there was any doubt that AF447 departed from cruise altitude without a major incident - and I thought it was accepted that a '200Te falling leaf' would still take 4 mins to get to sea level? How long did the B-720 in 1963 take to fall from FL 370 before recovery at 14,000 ft, or the 1985 747 from FL410 to 11,000ft?
The real question is how and when she departed from altitude, not that she actually departed.
My point is that other factors can't be ruled out at this point as there is absolutely no certaincy about the time and nature of the "upset" causing the crash. Many ACARS were sent from 0210 and it is very likely the start of a following sequence leading to one or more catastrophic events... but it doesn't mean an immediate unrecoverable upset!
See below about an aicraft falling from the sky like a "leaf" in 5 minutes (or more). One can make his own opinion.
Originally Posted by sensor_validation
No-one can explain why it would have occurred after 02:10 under effectively 'manual control' and before would presumably require a QF72 style flight computer 'glitch', perhaps the pitot tubes are innocent?
No-one can so far explain why switching at 0210 to ALT2, due to unreliable airspeed, would cause an immediate upset as none of the similar events ever caused one! After being switched to manual control, any manual imput could cause one in relation with other unknown factors (workload, weather, technical, etc.)
Originally Posted by sensor_validation
But surely the assumed proximity of the LKP to crash site suggests one major unrecoverable incident?
Yes: one upset... or more than one!
In my opinion, the attitude at impact and the rate of descent is not ruling out more than one incident!
9 unrecovered upsets from cruise level (data Metron Inc., BEA study):
Date.........ft/mn..Level..Dur....Dist..Type....-> Cause
07.12.1995..32,000..FL310...57s...8 NM..TU-154B -> Spiral / roll upset
19.12.1997..29,000..FL350...75s...5 NM..B-737.. -> Unknown
21.12.2002..27,000..FL180...40s...2 NM..ATR 72. -> Stall / icing
19.11.2001..26,000..FL260...59s...4 NM..IL-18V. -> Spiral / diving
01.01.2007..20,000..FL350..105s...9 NM..B-737.. -> Roll upset
15.07.2009..16,000..FL240...90s...5 NM..TU-154M -> Spiral / roll upset
22.08.2006..14,000..FL390..166s...3 NM..TU-154M -> Stall-spin
23.03.1994..12,000..FL310..156s...3 NM..A-310.. -> Spiral-spin / roll upset
16.08.2005..12,000..FL310..210s..17 NM..MD-82.. -> Stall
AF447 - timed cases for one upset from cruise level:
01.06.2009..35,000..FL350...60s..~5 NM..A-330 (1 mn)
01.06.2009..23,000..FL350...90s..~5 NM..A-330 (1.5 mn)
01.06.2009..17,500..FL350..120s..~5 NM..A-330 (2 mn)
01.06.2009..12,000..FL350..180s..~5 NM..A-330 (3 mn)
01.06.2009...9,000..FL350..240s..~5 NM..A-330 (4 mn)
01.06.2009...7,000..FL350..300s..~5 NM..A-330 (5 mn)
01.06.2009...6,000..FL350..360s..~5 NM..A-330 (6 mn)
Recovered upset: B747 China Airlines (17.02.1985)
1. 1014:50 -> 40,442 ft -> roll upset (4.8 G pull up)
2. 1015:23 -> 30,132 ft -> unreliable attitude data (5.1G pull up)
3. 1017:15 -> 9,577 ft -> recovery & climb
Total upset duration: 145 sec.
1..10,310 ft lost...33 sec..18,700 ft/mn
2..21,155 ft lost..112 sec..11,300 ft/mn
3..31,465 ft lost..145 sec..13,000 ft/mn (average)
"Upset" definition (from “2008 - Airplane Upset Recovery Training Aid Revision 2”):
An airplane upset is defined as an airplane in flight unintentionally exceeding the parameters normally experienced in line operations or training. In other words, the airplane is not doing what it was commanded to do and is approaching unsafe parameters.
While specific values may vary among airplane models, the following unintentional conditions generally describe an airplane upset:
• Pitch attitude greater than 25 deg, nose up.
• Pitch attitude greater than 10 deg, nose down.
• Bank angle greater than 45 deg.
• Within the above parameters, but flying at airspeeds inappropriate for the conditions.