Originally Posted by
takata
More likely, this small deviation from the flight plan was deliberate, certainly due to weather avoidance.
People should use the term "upset" more carefully. It means a loss of control when an aircraft flight attitude become dangerous (in pitch, roll...), something that can lead to a crash if not recovered immediately, and the crash may happen in a very short time following an upset (most of the time, 1 min or less). I don't think there is any precedence of an "upset" lasting 5 minutes (or more) before impact.
A deliberate change of the flight path (deviation, altitude, etc.) doesn't automatically qualify for an "upset" if the aircraft has not reached an "abnormal attitude". In this case, the attitude at impact doesn't tell much about an early "upset"... so far.
Of course many aircraft the same night did deviate, but given the likely weather pattern, to do so after 02:00 would surely have been too late? I didn't realize there was any doubt that AF447 departed from cruise altitude without a major incident - and I thought it was accepted that a '200Te falling leaf' would still take 4 mins to get to sea level? How long did the B-720 in 1963 take to fall from FL 370 before recovery at 14,000 ft, or the 1985 747 from FL410 to 11,000ft?
No-one can explain why it would have occurred after 02:10 under effectively 'manual control' and before would presumably require a QF72 style flight computer 'glitch', perhaps the pitot tubes are innocent?
But surely the assumed proximity of the LKP to crash site suggests one major unrecoverable incident?