BOAC, the distance between the location and the western boundary of the June 1 2009 search grid flown by Brazil is probably several nautical miles. If the VS came off simultaneous with the rest of the tail, I would think the VS would be hard to miss if the separation occurred within that first day's search area.
So I rather doubt that the tail is a long way off; however, it may be the most shattered section in the whole debris field. A lot of photography ahead.
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Below is this excerpt from the Canadian investigation into AI 182, which may be relevant to AF 447 if the tail did shatter.
“The depth of the wreckage varies between about 6000 and 7000 feet, and the effect of the ocean current, tides and the way objects may have descended to the sea bed was not determined, thus some distortion of an object's relationship from time of water entry to its location on the bottom cannot be discounted. In general, the items found east of long 12∞43.00'W are small, lightweight and often made of a structure which traps air. These items may have taken considerable time to sink and may have moved horizontally in sea currents before settling on the bottom. Marks left on the sea bed beside some wreckage does indicate horizontal movement of the wreckage as it settled.” "
http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/prg/ns.../CASBai-en.pdf
I might add the entire wreckage trail for AI 182 was 6.5 NM, on a line 110 degrees true.