@takata: Let's look at what we know.
- The last position received was at 02:10:34. That's 20 seconds after the AP switched off and problems obviously had begun.
- At 02:12:51, ADR disagree triggered, with concurrent loss of AOA protection
- Assuming they had taken evasive action shortly after 02:10:34 by initiating a left turn, they would now (~2.5 minutes later, at 02:12:51) be just about overhead where the wreckage was found and would probably be just about coming out of the left hand course reversal
- Enter a deep stall / flat spin at that point, facilitated by lack of AOA protection, pitch and power flying in turbulent conditions in a turn
- Assuming ~350ft/s descent rate in flat spin, impact with water would have happened ~1m40s later (if still at FL350 when entered)
- time predicted for impact: 02:14:31, that's 6 seconds off from when transmissions ceased. Very close.