I can remember Tony Geraghty commented in his book on BRIXMIS about the number of occasions they were highlighting or not as the case maybe when things were looking like spilling over based on distant readings of the situation.
Guess one of those situations where people see intent in a couple of separate unconnected actions could set someone off even though they unconnected...............maybe something like a Soviet Tank Division transiting out of East Germany and train breaks down close to a dispersal area with apparent massing of forces. At same time another loco with incoming unit does something similar while some Airbases start showing lots of activity and base work prior to arrival of new boss. Do something quickly and they assume you knew of the transit and it being a targeted weakness etc or have some patience and 24 hrs later situation back to as normal as paranoia allows.