Most of the pilots I speak to
at work who have come through Oxford/CTC all say the same thing - "I regret it". Many have said how if they had to do it all again they'd go modular. CTC have a nickname given to them by their students which is Criminal Thieving
- surely that says it all?
The fact that they "at work" certainly says something. However I am not sure the nickname really does. Initials do have a tendancy to lend themselves to overstated humour. I have been flying with cadets from these programmes for nearly 15 years now and have yet to meet one who has expressed any regret for the training choice they made. In fact most if not all seem to recognise the opportunity they have been afforded as very low hour pilots in gaining this type of opportunity.
A significant and growing number of airline companies have recognised the cost savings and flexibility that these cadet programmes afford them, and as they emerge from recession (to whatever degree,) these programmes are only likely to expand. A lot of investment has been made in recent years to provide for an increase in capacity and business. Take a look at the investment companies such as Flybe in Exeter are making in training facilities.
The idea that there will be a flood of opportunities so overwhelming that these organisations cannot cope with demand, is certainly one that they would rub their hands in glee at the anticipation of, but it is very unlikely to happen in reality.
A rapid expansion in growth generally, would simply introduce additional demand into the overall pilot market. That demand would be supplied by much the same sources as it always has been: experienced pilots looking to change jobs; military pilots; and career advancement pilots with sufficient levels of experience.
At the 250 hour level, the only changes likely based on current trends, projections, and even the most optimistic forecasts, are through these cadet schemes, simply because at this level of experience, and for airline flying, these are cadet opportunities. Outside of these schemes, the best opportunities are likely to be afforded to those who graduate themselves into the "career advancement" category by obtaining the levels of experience traditionally required by airlines looking for recruits who meet those minimum levels or better.
Your time will come, and when it does you'll have less debt then those who took the other path - and probably a better job/contract because they've all taken the crap offers from easyJet/Ryanair. When the airlines get desperate again they'll have to offer better pay and who knows maybe a free type rating!
What this blindly fails to recognise, is that those who have found airline employment on the types of contracts you mention, will have elevated themselves into the "career advancement" and "job changer" category. Not only that, but they will do so with significant levels of relevant experience, that would make them very attractive in the "overwhelming" scenario you suggest.
There are certainly going to be opportunities in the future. The industry has evolved and will continue to do so. People embarking on training courses now will need to work hard, and chase whatever opportunities at whatever level may be there to be sought out. For most it will be an arduous and very frustrating climb. Some will succeed, some will fail and some will make significant levels of compromise. Why? Because it has always been like that. The idea that yesterdays 2000 hour "self improver" is todays 250 hour "modular" wannabe, is a fallacy.
I actually don't care whether anybody believes this, agrees or disagrees. I would simply say open your eyes and look at what is actually happening in the real world. The company I work for is taking on around 20 pilots this year and the mix is half from the "experienced" pilot market, and half from an integrated training provider. Any further expansion next year is likely to see similar fractions from the same sources.
Student 88, look at your own employer. Low hour cadets from an integrated training provider. Expansion into even lower hour cadets from another integrated training provider. Experienced pilots from the career change/advancement categories.
These cadets metamorphorsize from "cadets" into the other categories within 24 months normally, and there is no shortage of new cadets coming up to take their place. The "our time will come" speech is all very rousing, but based on what I have seen for the last 35 years, or what I see now, meaningless.
For most people who cannot obtain a "fast track" airline opportunity, they will need to work hard to achieve qualification in one of the experienced pilot categories. Make no mistake, some will.
My perspective is that I am sitting in the top branches of a very tall tree. It is pleasant, leafy and comfortable from this vantage point. I have grown up with this tree, and it now affords a good view of the surrounding forest. I have seen quite a few of the seasonal cycles, some great summers and a few memorably stormy winters. In recent years there have been some quite disturbing trends as Irishmen with chainsaws and bulldozers have moved into the forest. Even the tree I live in has lost a lot of fruit, as its branches have been aggresively cut off in husbandry designed to ensure survival, as the new fast growing saplings have shot up and multiplied. The reality is that the forest may well expand, but not with these lovely oaks, only with the more productive, aggressive, fast climbing trees. To survive in this forest, you need to recognise and adapt to what is happening or you will end up as compost.