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Old 31st Mar 2011, 13:06
  #42 (permalink)  
LowObservable
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
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There are two issues that dominate the fighter business today. Between them, they determine the future of every program outside China and Russia.

The first is the future of JSF. The TBR has taken a good deal of risk out of the SDD schedule (allowing certain bumptious idiots to blather about being "ahead of schedule") but there are, today, no authentic estimates for procurement cost, because there isn't an approved procurement program. The original (2001) approval to start the SDD and LRIP phases, Milestone B, was rescinded last year after the Nunn-McCurdy breach.

At some point, however, there has to be a real, SecDef-approved estimate for costs, and there is a possibility that such costs will be (1) too high for the US to procure in planned numbers and (2) much higher than politicians and military leaders in most of the partner countries had promised. The result will be a "death spiral", with a further increase in costs and cut in numbers. There is another elephant, too, in the shape of operating costs.

The second is India. They have the money and the will to buy a fighter, and whichever one they choose gets a new lease on life, and likely becomes JSF's main competitor. The only exceptions are the F-16I and MiG-35, considered as outsiders.
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