Optimistic I may be and I am not a kipper fleet insider, but I did note that not one AEOp Sgt was required under redundancy tranche one and I have heard reliable rumours of the younger AEOp fraternity being 'parked' at home and abroad from were they can be recovered at a later date. The ASW 'experience' will be badly diluted I accept, but equally the younger blood are easier to train new toys with, and a few old and bold held in a training role would make a big difference. MPA Maritime Patrol Aircraft and there will be times in the coming years when the gap becomes negative front page news. BAe will smart for a while but time will heal as the dust collects on the Woodford sheds and a 'need' will be addressed with a cost effective off-the-shelf purchase of a new toy. I am not convinced that it will automatically be american as the japanese also have a purpose built aircraft and you can bet that the folk at Airbus Industries are looking very closely at future projects. After all, we are talking about an airframe of appropriate size at this time and whilst I have heard the rhetoric of how aerodynamically robust the airframe must be, the Nimrod was only ever a developed Comet and therefore precident set. Timing will always be down to public opinion and economic recovery and I suspect that nobody has a realistic guestimate of that, but my guess for what its worth is that a UK Mil roundel will adorn an MPA aircraft before the end of 2016. Navy or RAF is another debate, and I doubt that the numbers of airframes, squadrons and crews seen during the Cold War era will ever be seen again. In fact my expectation is for a single squadron with sufficient crews for 365/24 coverage. I hope that any decisions are not based on multi-role airframes such as AT or AAR double-hatting.