Following on from my previous post on PG1 (Net gain A/c in CX)
Sorry about the mistake! At least Dick makes some as well.
Right now as we speak airlines are hiring all over.
Ryan Air - have just lost 260 in Dec and another 250 are giving notice. Virgin & BA are having problems finding experienced crew on type.
The ME is very short at Mo & many are not allowed to take leave.
Cathay are dreaming when they think they can fill the plug with cadets. They are 160 short at present and this will go up rapidly.
I hear next year that will be tipple.
DE pilots have two happen and very fast!
Those joining CX as Cadets be warned P2X counts nothing if you apply for a job else where. Do cannot legally opp-orate the heading knob in cruise, how sad is that really!
You'll be making the beds for 5yrs & waiting + 20yrs for CMD. Let alone live in a box forever...
Your F/O upgrade will be stepped on by DEFO either on full Expat terms or on a base. (later most likely)
To get enough experience to move you'd need to wait at least 6yrs.
Be carefull of being CX's slave for 6yrs just to get free training etc.
Or at least leave within 6months of joining to get a GA job or pay for a 320 /737 rating to go ME etc..
As a DE pilot in HK at least u can get full expat benefits. But then u risk not being able to go on a base for a very long time. (no at all at the mo)
Why don't u join BA if u have experience, or Ryan air if u don't then jump to ME for a few yrs..
IMHO - wait and only join CX if u have too at a Expat pilot level or on a base but beware funny things are happening & will continue to happen here.
Ok CMD's
Times
NET GROWTH by 2020 =
41 A/c (say 50) to be optimistic)
[SIZE=2]By 2020 there will be 229 Cpt retiring & 50*7.5 =375 total new slots about 600 slots in the next 10 years. About 60 a year.
So currently CMD @ Snr no. 930 + 600 = 1530 then sadly it will slow to about 60-80 per year until 2030 after as it a very young airline & very little growth will happen in 2020-2030 until the new Runway is made as slots will be full. New Airport can only be complete by 2030 earliest I'm told by an engineer involved. If done at all.
No people reaching 65 in each year.
No of captain Retire per Year 2011 5 2012 8 2013 11 2014 12 2015 20 2016 27 2017 20 2018 24 2019 44 2020 58 2021 53 2022 51 2023 58 2024 57 2025 58 2026 47 2027 70 2028 62 2029 73 2030 76
Very interestingly this number will suddenly increases to about 150 retiring per year after 2030 with a new runway coming and more expansion there will be a sudden need for Captains & pilots again. So those on Cos99 expect Cx to beg you to reconsider working to 65.
Basically if you seniority number is X & less than expect CMD in yr Y
1100 2012
1300 2015
1500 2020
1700 2024
1900 2027
2100 2030
2300 2032
2500 2033
So expect CMD time will be 13-14 yrs till mid decade then to extend to +-18 yrs until 2020 then 20+ yrs until 2030.
Now this is based on Net gain a 50 A/c by 2020 and 2% growth in 20's and 4% growth in 30's. And everyone working to 65.
Some smart & not so smart folks may leave earlier. But I highly doubt more a/c "can" come. If HKA are successful the growth will be less thus longer wait to CMD. If they are not CMD could be much "worse" because they'll try to do Direct entry CMD again.
The main driver that will effect CMD in HK at the moment, is outsourcing cargo to AHK & JV. Also F/O's on the base not wanting to come to HK and remain on the base my guess is about 15%.
About 8% of F/O's will be Cat B,D. +- 10% will leave prior to 65. Thus expect things for HK based F/O's to improve by about 30% in the short term.
Anyway the main problem here is the courts will get worse in HK as the Chinese (AC) take more of a major stake in CX. At present no basis are available to get your home country protection. HK based pilots risk reducing expat terms & hyper inflation & really bad rosters to come.I heard that Cx aim to roster everyone to 90 hrs is the new target. Do that and only 6wks a yr life gets pretty dull.
Bottom line if you came here to have a good life on ULH with plenty of time off & disposable income and quick time to CMD. Forget it!! 
Why not use the current shortage worldwide of pilots to get a good job in your home country. Or get quick CMD time with HKA or ME then go home. But becarefull of CX as this flashy aircraft order of 91 a/c will only benefit those that joined from 2000-2005. (about 700 pilots)
Do u really want to be a cruise pilot making beds & doing radio work & not being able to touch anything for 4+ yrs on empty promises of quick upgrade time. Only to go home to a depressive box eating cheap food and only getting 21 days leave a yr. (as an S/O) and having no temp or permanent bases)
Good luck to you but be warned..
That's it from me until next month..