MG
My earlier post mentioned that Ark has gone (no engines, six months to bring back, CIWS removed etc) and Illustrious is in refit. Ocean might be available. Ark had worked with Apache last Autumn Ocean had not.
The point about the Colonel's ceasefire was that it delayed the UN taking action. If he is daft enough to carry on he will be clobbered. If he sits tight or withdraws to his heartland will the UN still take pre-emptive action to degrade his AD capability anyway?
So whilst the threat of action has had an impact, he has thrown the ball back into our court with the risk of now having to maintain a NFZ for some time or try to force the issue on Regime change. Note that Germany has already said no thanks to any involvement as has Tunisia. And whilst Italy appears willing it wants it's MP's to give formal approval to the use of airfields. Spain and France are as far away as Cyprus. I have no idea what Malta is thinking but it might stay quiet until things pan out.
Lets just wait and see if Tornados and Typhoons depart and where they end up at
