Originally Posted by cefey
Did doble in oil price had impact in aviation? Yes.
Is situation we have today, caused by that? No, global crisis have to take the blame.
90% global crisis, 10% oil prices.
But a large part of the global crisis WAS caused by the oil price.
Expensive oil doesn't just add to the price of an air ticket, it also makes it more expensive to get to work, to buy food, to heat your house - in short it takes a good chunk out of discretionary expenditure. Hint: discretionary expenditure is what pays the salaries of most pilots.
Why was it then, that the first neighbourhoods in US cities that started seeing house price declines were the exurbs (the most distant from the city centres)? And why is it that those worst hit continue to be the sprawliest, most spread out cities.
Why also were countries that had no sub-prime lending also hit by the recession (eg Japan)?
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I've also seen well-reasoned arguments that the financial crisis was a result of previously-very-cheap oil. The argument goes that cheap oil led to 2 decades of cheap transport costs, which led to the worlds manufacturing being moved to China. The vast amount of cheap unskilled factory labour available led to constant economic growth in rich countries without causing inflation. Low inflation led to cheap (and hence easy) money. All was going well until oil started becoming less cheap.
It's an interesting theory, not sure I agree with it, but it seems a plausible explanation.