It just shows you have no clue, and you don't know which number to chose. It could be 1000 or 500 aswell. Where did you get you number: 25 airlines going to bankrupcy from?
Sure I do. It shows at least I have SOME numbers, counter your... Nothing? Well, if I have no clue, then lets not even mention you..
As I said earlier (hey, you supposed to be proff. pilot? Why do I need to type same thing over and over again? No wonder marked is so bad for you... Explains quite a lot), Depends WHAT you call for airlines. 1 "Dash-8" or "at least 5 B737". Since you gave no nubmers what so ever, its very hard for me to specify.
Indeed, I dont have a clue (just like you), what your source is calling for "airline". Might as well be c-210, for all we know?
I asked you to specify, but you didnt
Where did you get you number: 25 airlines going to bankrupcy from?
From your own post. I guess you lack not only basic logic, but memory as well. Bad, bad combo for pilot...
at least twenty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations.
And just to make it clear (I know its hard with lack of logic), to make it easier and not guessing, who go bankrupt, who had to cease operation, I count all of them as "bankrupt" or you can call it "bad times" for whole 25 companies...
Did you forget to mention the IATA source on purpose, or you have memory probs?
Nope, cause I count IATA as reliable source. Which is quite logic... and quite logic that I dont mention it?
God, really, how on earth did you become pilot? Or did you...?
Never, ever, ever change carier to economist, that my advice for you. And I really do mean all the best with it.
Answer NO: The lower is the oil price, the lower is the airfare, the more people buy tickets, the more the airline flies (or the less they ground airplanes). In addition have a look at the airlines profit, and the link with the fuel price.
I did ticket calculation for you several times. Even of oil-price go up by 30%, prices on tickets will go up by 10% (approximate).
Oil prices goes up by 100%, tickets up by 30%.
My vacation budget is 1000-2000$. Where tickets stands for 100-200$.
If tickets now will cost 130-260 (whole vacation package price will be 1030-2060) will I cancel my vacation?
Even if ticket price get dobbled (for that, Oil have to be 3x average price), will I cancel whole vacation (price will be 2200, instead of 2000), or will I just cut down on something else?
For sure, some people MAY cancel vacation. 90% will go somewhere cheaper.
Will that affect airliners THAT much, as you claim? No, not at all.
So, with other words, you mean, global crisis, that affected basically every singe company in the world and around 70-80% of population in i-countries, did NOT affect whole aviation industry what so ever?!
I laugh and cry (of laughter)
))))))
Let me repeat. From your own post, whole 25 airlines, had bad times during first half of 2008.
End of 2009 - "a few more" companies experiencing bad time, ceasing operation. NO ONE hiring, its almost impossible even to get CFI job.
You know, its kind of like comparing: someone clap you on the chin (high oil prices) and then someone hit you on the head with baseball bat (crisis). And you gonna clame, that its clap that caused the brain damage.
Chin clap can be very hard and nasty. But you can never compare it to a good hit with the bat... So please, stop doing it
Was it high oil prices that killed aviation for 3 years? No, that was global crisis. And THATS IT.
High price induced a lot of airline bankrupcy till july 2008 with fuel price at $147. When the price went down (down to something like $25/30), thanks to the recession in 2009, much less companies went to bankrupcy.
Well, that exactly what Ive been telling you.
Oil prices really affected 25 companies.
Prob. more companies had unpleasant times, but nothing big. But, out of your own post (IATA-source), only 25 companies worldwide, was forced to cease operation or go bankrupt, during that time.
So what we ended up with? High oil-prices DID had impact on aviation. But it was only 25 companies that was affected major.
So, where aviation is today, was not caused by high oil-price back then. That affected maybe 1%. Lets even say 10%. But you still have 90% because of crisis.
So, if we gonna again have such high prices, will that "kill" aviation, like CRISIS did? No. It may give bad times for 6 months or even a year. But then it will be fine.
So it absolutely wrong, to claim that "oil prices is picking up again, aviation gonna be dead". Well, maybe companies gonna stop expending and stop HIRING for some time (while high oil prices, 6-12 months). But then good trend will continue.
Sure, it will be slightly more competitivity for a job, since it was little hiring for a year. But low-hour pilot will NOT have to compete with some1 with 15000hrs on type.
So marked is not that bad, unless you think we gonna have new global crisis.
PS: Im sorry if somewhere I was disrespectful or rued. I felt you stated that tone. And I dont like to type same thing n-times and people just ignoring it, and keep asking same question.
No offence.
john_smith
Thank you for your post. Its really nice to see (for a change), someone just saying their opinion and not claiming to know everything.