411, if oil stays high then the world, as a whole, is in trouble and Dubai, which is already sitting on the thin edge of the blade, will fall quickly (led by its cash cow - Emirates).
This is going to get interesting quickly. EK has to hire 700 pilots in the next year to cover growth and the resume pile is already dry.
Now add to this the turmoil in the Middle East and what person in his right mind is going to move his family to Dubai???? While I don't expect anything to happen in the UAE the neighboring counties are all having difficulties (except Qatar and Kuwait) and more importantly, for the average person not from the ME, it is TOO CLOSE for comfort. I suspect that the recruiting pool will really dry up now.
I know EK believes that Dubai is no longer a 'hardship' post. That changed a few weeks ago. The risk to moving here increased exponentially a few weeks ago. This is true whether it is reality or a perception. The cost to attract pilots just went up and the value of KEEPING pilots did as well (GF will find this out quickly if they are not proactive).
But I doubt EK will do anything about it and we will slip further.