The enemy within and without
Hello boys and girls. Somewhat sadly, I will go a bit further than Andu; but first, have a read of this great article by Professor Henry Ergas in 'The Australian', 18Feb11: Captain Kafka running defence | The Australian
In 2008/09, defence expenditure approximated around $22.4billion or 7.6 percent of federal government revenue, which was then about $295billion – forget relativity to GDP as that is just smoke and mirrors stuff.
Assuming current defence expenditure is $26.8billion, grab a calculator and project the intended compounding increases in defence expenditure at 3 percent per annum out to 2018 and then 2.2 percent to 2030. Figure just how much federal government revenue would have to increase for defence spending to represent 7.6 percent downstream, or whatever figure you prefer. The question arises whether that will be affordable without the nation being taxed into poverty.
The starry-eyed lot at the top of the defence realm have indeed evaded their responsibilities to undertake cost-effective force structures planning and military leaders will likely escape culpability due to wholesale changes in top level appointments due mid-2011. The unrealistic spendathon is of course promoted by multiple retired politicians and senior military officers now employed by the powerful multi-national arms conglomerates – just follow the people and projects trail and this aspect becomes clear.
Why do we need 46 medium lift MRH90 when 12 Chinooks would have been better or 100 JSF or 8 infantry battalions? And we certainly do not need the superfluous Ministries of Defence Material and Science & Personnel. Lots of scope for force structures rationalisation and running a lean and more efficient organisation and we can only hope that the politicians see the need for much improved oversight of defence affairs.
It seems inevitable to me that some defence cutbacks are in the offing, as has been happening elsewhere in the world. That is just economic reality.