PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - If I was in flight school now, I would quit.
Old 24th Sep 2001, 03:45
  #13 (permalink)  
The Guvnor
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Unhappy

Reality check, people.

When the dust settles, there will probably be at least 20 - and possibly as many as 50,000 qualified and experienced pilots out of a job, worldwide.

I've been around a fair while - I started at Laker Airways in 1981 - and I've been through two recessions. This one will be worse than the other two combined.

What we're going to see is this:

1) Massive pay cuts - which once instituted will remain in place.
2) For every available job that comes up, there will be hundreds of qualified applicants. This means that someone without experience will not even be considered.
3) There will be start-ups to take the place of some of the airlines that go to the wall - but again, their interest will be in experienced people.
4) The previous homes for people looking to build hours - eg flying schools, Africa, corporate flying etc will be closed as again experience is sought. Remember that many an out of work pilot will be prepared to literally "fly for food" as has happened in the past and will happen again now.
5) Companies that laid people off are required to hire back those people in preference to 'outsiders'. It's only once those slots have been filled that new people will be accepted - but again, experienced people will be taken in preference.
6) Prior to the events of the 11th September, Warren Buffet (who knows a thing or two about these things) was predicting that the current recession will last eight years. If things develop the way that they could, you'll see an economic collapse that will make the 1930s look like boom times.

So Kaptein Max is 100% correct. If you're in the middle of a course; or are about to start - STOP and assess your options. The chances of you getting an airline job over the next five plus years are nil to non-existent and you're going to need the money for other things in the interim.

I wish I could be more positive - but you lot need to know the true situation as it stands out there. Some of the comments on this thread are absolutely incredible - the naivety shown by some is truly frightening.