When will airlines start preparing safety cases?

[Rigga]

"Rigga,

you cannot judge the worth of a safety case from an experience of reading only bad ones.

If "Bad" Systems are all that I see I cannot make another judgement against the evidence present - Show me a good one.
As I have pointed out, the certification documents for all commercial transport aircraft contain one large safety case. The regulations define a risk matrix for single-point failures (although it is not called that; it is called a "relationship between probability and severity of effects" in Table 4-1 of Lloyd and Tye's Systematic Safety, CAA Publications, 1982). There is a systematic hazard analysis of every system on board and it is accompanied by a demonstration that the requirements of the risk matrix are satisfied.

Airworthiness certification is obviously very effective. Commercial air transports are amongst the most trustworthy artefacts subject to dangerous failures which have ever been built.

If this is so good then why is there a need to have another level of safety bureaucracy inside the airline itself?
So much for your contention that safety cases are mostly rubbish.

See my earlier answer.

PBL,
I have checked out your website (because I used to live in Avenwedde) and I have downloaded and read your department missives on safety analysis systems - I have even used my interpretation of "Why-Because" in a recent MEDA investigation (and I thought it worked well, too) but a university position and membership of glorious societies does not a perfect solution make!

I believe that the theory of mandating everyone has a set of tools to self-assess for perfection is flawed in its concept.

I believe that theory emulates the ISO9001 theory of perfection, in that it becomes a beast of horror and self-destruction if allowed to consume more and more effort to achieve the "perfect" status.

You find the best ISO9001 company and I'll show you a very large and very expensive QA dept with a low reputation.

By the way - I do like your published theories and tools, especially the Why-Because thing. But I think they may not aptly apply in all the areas you think.