There seems little doubt that this one is going to run and run. I have had a couple of very interesting conversations with people 'in the know' in the last couple of days, and there is no doubt that this is becoming a big deal. I am told that GB will shortly be holding roadshows to discuss the issue with their pilots, and it has also been suggested that the GB cabin crew could form part of any agreement reached as well. The basic view of the GB management team seems to be that they are totally opposed to this move as it would add significantly to the direct operating costs of the company. (Various figures are being bandied around from £1.2m to £4.0m per annum). For some reason it appears that the first of the 3 franchises (GB, Maersk and British Med) to be targetted for integration is GB. It is almost certainly because we are so successful.
There is however a recognition that if BA pilots choose to strike over Scope then GB would be heavily leant on to come into line, and that GB would be in an extremely difficult position to resist. I have to confess to feeling somewhat down about the whole situation because it is quite apparent that as long as this uncertainty hangs over GB then our proposed expansion is likely to grind to a halt.
The doomsday scenario is actually not the take-over by BA, however unattractive it appears to GB right now. The real glitch would arise if the pilots are not taken on by BA but the Gaggeros (GB's owners) decide that because of the uncertainty they will not press ahead with the expansion. Then the FOs will find themselves in a small company which will never expand and many years to wait before promotion is possible Many pilots who joined GB in the last few years are finding that the goalposts are moving faster than they can run to catch up. Whatever the rights or wrongs of the issue, and we have heard many eloquent arguments on both sides, there can be no doubt that a speedy resolution one way or the other is in everybody's interests.
The tragedy is that GB is a top class, successful company that enjoys huge loyalty from its staff, particularly its pilots. In my time in the company I have hardly met a single pilot who does not think it is a great company to work for. What is really interesting is that even recently-promoted Captains who possibly have the most to gain by a move to BA are not very keen. The honest truth is that this is all a game of Snakes and Ladders. Where you are on the board at the time of any merger will determine how good a deal it is for you. A young FO will effectively jump up a ladder several squares in that overnight he is in a huge airline with fantastic career opportunities. Older FOs who joined GB late on will drop down a large snake as their chances of promotion in BA are significantly poorer than they would be at GB. You cannot blame anyone for wanting the deal that best suits their own circumstances.
I personally hope that BA are politely told to clear off, but I fear that the writing is on the wall.